El Niño 2026: A Climate Crisis That Hits Black South Africans First
The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that a powerful El Niño is rapidly developing, with a 90% chance it will persist until at least November. For South Africa, this means a scorching summer ahead, with extreme heat, drought, and veld fires threatening the country's summer rainfall regions. But as Zanele Mokoena reports, the burden of this climate crisis will fall heaviest on Black communities already struggling with the legacy of apartheid-era land and resource inequality.
What is El Niño and Why Should We Care?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures rise by over 2°C above average. While it sounds distant, its effects are deeply local. In South Africa, El Niño typically blocks rain-bearing systems, leading to prolonged heatwaves, temperatures exceeding 40°C, and increased risk of runaway fires. The SA Weather Service forecaster Lelo Kleinbooi explains that this phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) results in warmer and drier conditions across the Free State, North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and the eastern parts of the Eastern Cape. These are precisely the regions where Black farming communities and townships are most vulnerable.
How Will This Affect Black Farmers and Food Security?
The drought conditions associated with El Niño pose a direct threat to food production and prices in 2027. But Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), offers a cautious note of hope. He points out that years of favourable La Niña rainfall have left South Africa with its largest-ever summer grain and oilseed harvest, estimated at 21.49 million tonnes for the 2025/26 season. Maize production alone is expected to reach 17.25 million tonnes, well above domestic consumption of about 12 million tonnes. This buffer, Sihlobo argues, could cushion the agricultural sector against the worst effects of El Niño. However, this does not erase the structural inequalities that leave Black smallholder farmers without access to irrigation, credit, or insurance. The real test will be whether the government's land reform and support programmes can reach those who need them most.
What Can Communities Do to Prepare?
Understanding El Niño is not just a matter of science; it is a tool for survival. The WMO warns that El Niño will push global temperatures higher and contribute to more extreme weather. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has urged countries to act before the full effects are felt. For South Africa, this means investing in early warning systems, water conservation, and support for small-scale farmers. It also means confronting the uncomfortable truth that climate change amplifies existing racial and economic injustices. As the heat rises, so must our demand for a just transition that puts Black lives and livelihoods first.
FAQ: What You Need to Know About El Niño 2026
Will El Niño cause food shortages in South Africa?
Not necessarily. South Africa enters this El Niño with record grain stocks and improved soil moisture from previous La Niña rains. But the risk of localized shortages and price hikes remains high, especially for communities that rely on rain-fed agriculture.
Which regions will be hit hardest?
The summer rainfall regions, including the Free State, North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, and eastern parts of the Eastern Cape, will face the most severe heat and drought conditions. These areas are home to many Black farming communities and townships.
How long will this El Niño last?
The World Meteorological Organization says there is a more than 90% chance that El Niño conditions will persist until at least November 2026. The longer it lasts, the more drastic the impacts on water security and agriculture.
What can the government do to help?
The government must prioritize support for small-scale Black farmers, invest in irrigation infrastructure, and expand early warning systems. Without targeted action, the climate crisis will deepen the racial wealth gap that apartheid created.