Oil at $109: How the Middle East war hits South African pockets
South African motorists are bracing for record fuel prices in October as the escalating US-Iran war pushes global oil prices to their highest level in nearly four months. Brent crude closed at $108.95 a barrel on Thursday, with both major benchmarks ending the week above $100 for the first time since mid-May. For a country still recovering from the economic wounds of apartheid, this is not just a market story; it is a daily assault on working-class families who depend on transport to reach jobs and schools.
The numbers are stark. Brent futures hit $108.95 on Thursday, the highest close since 19 May. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to $103.17 a barrel. Both benchmarks jumped more than 6% on Thursday alone, and on a weekly basis they are trading nearly 13% higher, the steepest gain since mid-July. This is not abstract market chatter; it translates directly to the petrol pump.
Why are oil prices rising so fast?
The war between the US and Iran has spread to critical shipping lanes. Iran-aligned Houthis seized Yemen's port of Mocha on Thursday, threatening Red Sea traffic. Meanwhile, tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz have intensified, restricting Gulf traffic. Analysts at ING noted that while some volumes still move through Hormuz, flows remain well below pre-war levels. This fragility is the engine of the price surge.
Attacks from Yemen on Saudi energy facilities have also escalated, widening the conflict beyond Iran. The market now fears prolonged disruptions across the region, not just a brief spike. IG analyst Tony Sycamore warned that WTI could retest the $119.48 high from early March if events continue to spiral.
What does this mean for South African fuel prices?
News24 reported on Thursday that local fuel prices are on course to reach new record highs in October. Current underrecoveries, which indicate increases, are between R1.65 and R2.05 per litre. These figures will shift daily with international fuel prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate. For a nation where many still live far from economic opportunity due to apartheid-era spatial planning, every rand increase is a tax on survival.
The US national average diesel price has already passed $6 a gallon for the first time ever, according to price tracker GasBuddy. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have compounded the supply crunch. South Africa, as a net importer of refined fuels, is fully exposed to these global shocks.
Will the war end soon?
US President Donald Trump has shown no sign of easing attacks on Iran. He warned that the US may hit Iran's Pickaxe Mountain near the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, but said he expects the war to end after the November midterm elections. Iran, for its part, said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, after the US hit five Iranian oil tankers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has vowed to escalate its response.
This is not a distant conflict. It is a direct threat to the already fragile economic gains of South Africa's Black majority. The legacy of apartheid left us with deep inequalities, and every fuel price hike widens that gap further.
What could stabilise the oil market?
Analysts say the rally's durability hinges on China, the world's largest crude importer. If China continues buying, supply disruptions could drive prices even higher. OPEC has lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, the fifth straight downward revision. OPEC output also fell by 640,000 bpd in August, according to a Reuters survey.
Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said the next move in oil will depend less on headlines and more on whether physical flows improve or deteriorate. The question is whether the market can stabilise below $120, or whether another wave of disruption pushes crude into a completely new price regime.
Frequently asked questions about the oil price surge
How high could fuel prices go in South Africa?
Based on current underrecoveries, petrol prices could rise by between R1.65 and R2.05 per litre in October. This would mark a new record high, compounding pressure on households and businesses.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important?
About 20% of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there affects global prices immediately, and South Africa is a price taker in this market.
Is there any relief in sight for consumers?
Analysts say stability depends on China's buying behaviour and whether physical oil flows improve. OPEC's downward demand forecast suggests some easing, but the war's trajectory remains the dominant factor.
For South Africans, the message is clear: this is not just an oil story. It is a story of how global conflict deepens local inequality, and how the working class bears the heaviest burden. As we watch the rand weaken and prices climb, we must ask who is protecting the most vulnerable among us.
Photo: news24