Severe Storms Set to Batter Gauteng and North West: A Test of Resilience for Our Communities

The South African Weather Service has issued a Yellow Level 2 warning for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, with heavy rain, hail, damaging winds and lightning threatening parts of South Africa. This latest weather event is a stark reminder of the environmental challenges that continue to disproportionately impact our townships and rural settlements, where infrastructure remains vulnerable to the whims of nature.

Which provinces are under the severe thunderstorm warning?

Severe thunderstorms are expected to hit large parts of South Africa on Tuesday, with Gauteng, North West and several other regions facing heavy downpours, damaging winds, hail and excessive lightning. The South African Weather Service has issued a Yellow Level 2 warning for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday, covering North West, Gauteng, the Mpumalanga Highveld, south-western Limpopo, northern Free State and the extreme north-eastern parts of the Northern Cape.

The storms could result in localised flooding of susceptible roads, low-lying areas and bridges, while damaging winds and hail could cause localised damage to settlements and infrastructure. For many of our communities, particularly those in informal settlements and historically neglected areas, this warning carries a weight that goes beyond a simple weather forecast. It is a reminder that the legacy of spatial apartheid continues to shape who bears the brunt of these natural events.

What does the rainfall forecast look like for Gauteng?

Rainfall projections show a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms across Gauteng and parts of North West and Mpumalanga, while a 30% chance is forecast across other parts of the country's central and eastern regions. Gauteng residents can expect a sharp change to cloudy and cold conditions on Tuesday, although temperatures will be slightly milder in the extreme north. Scattered showers and thundershowers are forecast across the province, with rainfall chances reaching 60%. The UVB sunburn index will be moderate.

How will North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo be affected?

North West will be cloudy, windy and cool, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The province falls within the Yellow Level 2 warning area and has a 60% chance of rain in parts. Mpumalanga will be cloudy and cold, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will become more isolated over the northern Lowveld, while rainfall chances reach 60% over parts of the province. Limpopo will also experience cloudy and cold conditions, with isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming scattered over the south-western and south-central parts. Rain chances range between 30% and 60% across the province.

What about the Free State and Northern Cape?

The Free State will be cold in the east and otherwise cloudy and cool. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast, becoming scattered in the north. Rain chances range from 30% to 60% across parts of the province. The Northern Cape will be fine and warm across much of the province, but partly cloudy conditions and isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the east, where the chance of rain is around 30%.

Which regions will escape the storms?

The Western Cape is expected to remain largely dry, with no rain indicated in the rainfall forecast. It will be partly cloudy over the north-eastern parts in the morning before becoming fine and cool to warm, with hot conditions along the west coast. Strong winds are possible along parts of the coastline, with fresh to strong north-easterly winds along the south coast in the morning. Strong to near gale-force south-easterly winds are expected along the south-west coast. The UVB sunburn index will be very high.

The western half of the Eastern Cape will be partly cloudy along the coast at first before becoming fine and cool. The eastern half will be partly cloudy and cool south of the escarpment, becoming cloudy along the coast later in the day. Evening rain is expected along the coast east of the Kei River, with a 30% chance of rain indicated for parts of the province. KwaZulu-Natal can expect morning and evening fog over the interior, with otherwise cloudy and cold to cool conditions. Isolated showers and rain are forecast, becoming scattered along the coast and in the extreme north. The chance of rain ranges between 30% and 60% in affected areas.

What should communities do to stay safe?

As we have seen time and again, the impact of severe weather is never equal. It is our communities, often the most marginalised, that face the greatest risks. We urge residents in the affected areas to monitor local weather reports closely, secure loose objects around their homes, and avoid crossing flooded roads or bridges. The South African Weather Service continues to provide updates, and we encourage everyone to heed these warnings. Our resilience as a people has always been our strength, but we must also demand that the infrastructure meant to protect us is built to serve all of us, not just a privileged few.